Job ads continued to cool in April

Job ads still normalising

Job advertisements fell by -5.7 per cent in New South Wales in April, by -4.1 per cent in Victoria, by -3.1 per cent in Queensland, and by -3.8 per cent in Western Australia, according to SEEK's latest monthly update.

There were also significant declines in South Australia, Tasmania, the NT, and the ACT. 

Of course, ads are falling back to earth from previously highly elevated levels. 

Source: SEEK

Over the past year job advertisements have dropped by more than -24 per cent in the two most heavily populated states of New South Wales and Victoria.

At the industry level job ads are down by a third in IT, and by a fifth in hospitality and tourism, retail, accounting, and administration and office support. 

Source: SEEK

While this isn't yet exactly a disaster, applications per job advertisement are naturally rocketing higher, and wages growth is evidently rolling over. 

As with the weak retail figures - which have been declining over the past year in volume terms - these figures are further evidence that the current policy settings are contractionary, and are generally doing their job (with no pun there intended). 

I've been over in Perth this week, and while house building is picking up, there are seemingly very few apartment projects moving ahead, while office vacancies are readily apparent.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

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    2. Download our property buying guide

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Listen in to our podcasts

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By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

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The Money Puzzle podcast (postcode discrimination)

Money Puzzle

I joined James Kirby on The Australian's Money Puzzle podcast to discuss all the latest property and markets news.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

In other news, total property listings fell by -6.4 per cent in April, with double-digit declines in Sydney and Perth. 

Distressed listings fell for a second consecutive month. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Rents accelerating in early 2024

Rent surge continues

CoreLogic released its latest rental report, and it looks as though rents re-accelerated in early 2024, as international students and permanent migrants powered up the market further. 

Over the April quarter rents increased by +2.8 per cent to be +8.5 per cent higher than a year earlier. 

Rents were a little softer across regional Australia, but rents increased surprisingly strongly across most of the capital cities in particular, with rents up +2.9 per cent over the quarter, and +9.4 per cent over the year to April 2024. 

Over the past year rental price growth has been very strong in Perth, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and Adelaide. 

Source: CoreLogic

Nationally the median rental price rose to a fresh high $627/week, with Sydney hitting a new high for any Aussie capital city of $770/week. 

Rental yields have thus picked up somewhat from their cycle lows, even as housing prices rise. 

CoreLogic cited record high population growth as a principal reason for the strength and tightness of many rental markets.

The below chart from CBA illustrates the scale of the challenge as net immigration has continued to scale new peak annual rates:

And since little can be done in the short-term to address these issues, rents are likely to continue rising through 2024, noted CoreLogic.

Inflation pulse fading

In some brighter news, however, inflation in Australia does look to be softening a little.

The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose by only 0.09 per cent in April, and it looks like inflation may continue to fade as time goes on.

Dr. Alex Joiner brilliantly charts the figures as ever:

Source: MI, Dr. Alex Joiner, IFM Investors

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

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You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense podcast: Is inflation coming back to Australia?

2-Sense

This week we discussion, inflation, the forthcoming Budget night, and the push towards Build to Rent.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch on YouTube below:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

US labor market appears to be finally cracking

US payrolls are slowing

The US unemployment rate has remained steadfastly low, over the past couple of years, but increased more than expected to 3.9 per cent in April, having gradually moved higher from the cycle low of 3.4 per cent.

It was also the weakest gain for payrolls in six 6 months, even as the economy notched a 40th consecutive monthly gain. 

Despite high population growth, payrolls increased by far less than expected at +175,000, with revisions stripping another -22,000 from the preceding two months. 

Job openings also declined in March, it was reported this week.

Importantly, the growth in average hourly earnings slowed to just +0.2 per cent overt the month, and at +3.9 per cent over the year fell below +4 per cent for the first time in nearly 3 years. 

With an election coming up in the US the commentary from economists is becoming increasingly and sometimes absurdly partisan, which journalists torn between the desire to talk up a strong economy and breathe a sigh of relief that high interest rates are finally doing their job.

With most borrowers in the US using long-term fixed rate mortgages, tighter policy has taken a long time to show any meaningful effect on spending and hiring, but it does look as though things might finally be cracking a little.

Not a disaster, of course, with the headline unemployment rate still very low, but markets will love to see the prospect of lower interest rates by the final quarter of 2024, to be reflected in a very strong trade for stock markets and significantly lower Treasury yields across the curve. 

Housing lending skews to higher income earners

Lending picks up again

The value of lending for housing increased by 3 per cent in March 2024, to be 17 per cent higher than a year earlier. 

There was a continued low level of lending for construction, while investor lending is picking up gradually.

Source: ABS

The average size of investment loan increased to a new record high, leading for the usual calls to tighten up lending even further, which is nonsensical.

It's important to note, however, that the average loan size is naturally skewing higher under the new settings, because lower income earners are shut out of the market by the 3 percentage points lending assessment buffer.

A 300 basis points buffer potentially makes sense when interest rates are low and expected to rise.

But now interest rates are higher and expected to fall over the years ahead, so the buffer penalises first homebuyers and single-income households in the pursuit of 'stability'.

Stability may be a laudable goal, but it's questionable whether shutting off the new supply of apartment sales will lead to more or less stability over the medium term, with rents now rocketing, and a chronic shortage of housing stock (to be inevitably followed by a corresponding high-rise glut down the track). 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Unit approvals are outright tanking

Approvals collapse gathers pace

The ABS released the latest building approvals figures, and they ain't good.

For house approvals the only bright spot is Perth. 

Everywhere else looks set to be undersupplied. 

Unit approvals were just dire, and look especially low in Brisbane where construction costs are simply too high to make unit projects work at today's prices. 

Overall, house approvals are holding up, thanks to Perth, and unit approvals are outright collapsing.

Unit prices may need to rise 50 per cent in most areas before we see any kind of meaningful supply response (although the government will push for more Build to Rent developments). 

Overall, only 162,000 dwellings were approved over the past year, the lowest in 11 years. 

The ABS highlighted the reason for the malaise, which is high construction costs, with the average approval value rising across all states, to be 50 per cent higher over the past four years. 

The housing market looks set to be largely undersupplied for the remainder of the decade. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Perth housing market cyclical boom

Perth boom

Low content output this week as I've been at an event on the Gold Coast!

CoreLogic released its monthly housing market report, which showed (or confirmed) what everyone already knew, that Perth's housing market is continuing to absolutely tee off.

I'm actually heading over to Perth next week for the first time in some years, so it'll be interesting to see first hand how things have changed out on the west coast.

Perth prices were up around +6 per cent over the quarter, with Adelaide (+3.3 per cent) and Brisbane (+3.1 per cent) also continuing to record strong price growth. 

Over the past three months, of the 8 capital cities only Melbourne has not recorded nominal price growth.

Source: CoreLogic

Generally the price growth has been recorded across the lower price points of the market of late, as tighter borrowing capacities are biting. 

Rents have been rising faster than prices since November, according to CoreLogic, and rents rose around +2.7 per cent over the quarter, again led by Perth (+3.9 per cent). 

You can track down CoreLogic's full monthly report here. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.